Several Carlisle-area businesses remember when the U.S. Army War College was threatened with closing in 1995. They're staying calm about the latest closure talk, but they acknowledge any relocation of the college would hurt the local economy and their bottom line.
"Those of us who have been here long enough know that this has happened before," said John Ulsh, manager of Mountz Jewelers in downtown Carlisle. (See "Impact ...," on page 18.)
Ulsh said War College students - and especially retired military personnel in the region - generate a significant amount of business for his store because they tend to have more disposable income.
"We're getting them at a later point in their military career. They have kids or grandchildren. From a buying standpoint, we're getting them at their peak. They're buying for big life events too, like major anniversaries or birthdays," Ulsh said.
Buz Wolfe, owner of Wolfe & Shearer Realtors, acknowledged it would have a negative long-term effect on area businesses. He rents six of his own properties to War College students and manages about 12 more for local clients.
"Am I terribly worried? No. But then, if you had asked me three years ago if the Dickinson Law School was going to leave, I would have said 'No' then. Now, it looks that it could leave," Wolfe said.
Such responses from the business community are not surprising, said Michelle Crowley, president of the Carlisle Area Chamber of Commerce.
"They probably don't have a way to gauge the impact on their business," said Crowley, who visited a Carlisle restaurant last week that had 23 War College visitors at one table. "Maybe a closure wouldn't seem like much on the surface, but long-term, it would really affect us."
Area hotels, restaurants and the housing market would take a direct financial hit if the barracks closed, Crowley said.
Cumberland County would lose about 10 percent of its local economy if the facilities closed, according to a Dickinson College economics professor.
Bill Bellinger, associate professor of economics, completed a study on the economic impact of the War College last year. He found it generated $117 million indirect and indirect spending in Carlisle and $174 million in Cumberland County in 2003.
The Barracks provides 656 military and 1,061 civilian and contractor jobs. That is nearly 8 percent of all jobs in the Carlisle area, the study concluded.
One possible scenario involves relocating the War College to a military base at Fort Leavenworth, Kan., or Washington, D.C., said John Connolly, chief clerk for Cumberland County Should that happen, local government officials would try to help the Army find a suitable tenant for its empty educational, facilities on the barracks, he said.
Connolly, a former War College student, said there could be a private-public partnership in which the academic building space could be used to house offices.
"People are talking about different ideas," Bellinger said, suggesting the military's academic facilities could also be used as some sort of technical campus. "That property will not lie vacant."
But local officials are a long way from resigning themselves to simply sitting back and waiting for the Department of Defense decision this spring. Municipal and state officials have been huddling for months and traveling to meet with Congressional leaders to plead their cases for keeping the War College in Carlisle.
"The time for action is now," Connolly said. "What you want to do is stay off the BRAC list. Once you're on that, it's like Mission Impossible to get off."
Lt. Col. Merideth Bucher, director of public affairs at the Carlisle Barracks, said any number of scenarios could happen with BRAC. Even if Carlisle Barracks ends up on the list, any changes would go through a final review with Congressional leaders.
"We're still planning for our future here," Bucher said.
Heather Kattouf
general manager of Comfort Suites, Carlisle
War College visitors make up a large portion of the downtown Carlisle hotel's business. Manager Heather Kattouf estimates about 25 percent of her customers are military personnel, contractors or visitors to the base.
"It would be pretty dramatic. We would survive, but we'd have to go to new areas to find new customers."
Kattour said she would try to entice more corporate and leisure customers to her 5-year-old hotel to make up the difference. Comfort Suites is on Hanover Street. Like other hotels in the area, it offers military personnel a per-diem rate.
"Retaining your customers is a lot easier than getting new customers."
About the college
The War College is part of the Carlisle Barracks. The barracks, founded in 1757, is the second-oldest active military post in the country. (West Point is the oldest). The U.S. Department of Defense is expected to announce in May whether the War College and barracks would be affected by the Base Realignment & Closure.
SOURCE: PUBLIC AFFAIRS DEPARTMENT, CARLISLE BARRACKS
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